Back in 2016 I was horrified when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. The polls predicted an easy win for Hillary Clinton, but the quirks of the US electoral system and a lot of disaffection not picked up by polling meant the result was a shock.
I won’t sport with your intelligence by repeating all the awful things he did in office, partly because I’m sure you remember, and also, they are too numerous to summarise. But it can best be described as a shit show.
He lost in 2020, but what is astonishing is this inarticulate con artist is still popular and having another run. This year, he’s up against Kamala Harris and according to polls it’s neck and neck and could go either way.
It’s kind of depressing really isn’t it? If American was a small unimportant country it wouldn’t really matter, but as the largest superpower in the world their electoral choices have global repercussions. Trump is elected, the consequences this time could be really serious.
What I can’t understand is how he appeals to so many people, including New Zealand’s former Prime Minister John Key. Despite Key’s endorsement, a Trump presidency won’t bring economic advantages unless you are a millionaire or billionaire. Last time the economy tanked.
A second Trump presidency will likely lead to NATO being disbanded, the eroding of civil rights in America and bolster anti-democratic regimes around the world. It will also probably mean the defeat of Ukraine in its war with Russia.
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People across the world are quite concerned about this but I take some hope in the reports of some people such as filmmaker Michael Moore who are very connected to communities in swing states. He predicts the polls are not accurately picking up sentiment around the country. When Trump beat Clinton, he was one of the only people who predicted it. I hope he’s right.
The result ultimately comes down to a tiny number of ‘swing states’. In my view, if Harris wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then she’ll win the presidency.
But that won’t end the problems in America’s badly designed and politically influenced electoral system. It also won’t stop the misinformation and outright lies peddled by Fox News and the influence of Chinese, Russian and Iranian interference in social media. The country is so divided and politics is at such a dangerous level of ferment that the future continues to be uncertain.
Who do I think will win? Well based on what I’ve read and seen, I think Harris will win the Election total College 276 to 262. I came to that result using CNN’s Path to Victory page this is my prediction. Boy I hope I’m right. We’ll know within a few days.
My prediction:
