Back in 2016 I was horrified when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. The polls predicted an easy win for Hillary Clinton, but the quirks of the US electoral system and a lot of disaffection not picked up by polling meant the result was a shock.
NOTE – My prediction below was way off and wrong – the read my next opinion about how to deal with this result – click here.
I won’t sport with your intelligence by repeating all the awful things he did in office, partly because I’m sure you remember, but also because they’re too numerous to summarise. But it can best be described as a shit show.
He lost in 2020, but what is astonishing is this inarticulate con artist is still popular and having another tilt at the top job. This year, he’s up against Kamala Harris and according to polls it’s neck and neck and could go either way.
It’s kind of depressing really isn’t it? If American was a small unimportant country it wouldn’t really matter, but as the largest superpower in the world their electoral choices have global repercussions. If Trump is re-elected the consequences this time could be really serious.
A second Trump presidency will likely lead to NATO being disbanded, the eroding of civil rights in America and bolster anti-democratic regimes around the world. It will also probably mean the defeat of Ukraine in its war with Russia.
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People across the world are quite concerned about this but I take some hope in the views of people like filmmaker Michael Moore who are very connected to communities in swing states. He says the polls are not accurately picking up sentiment around the country. When Trump beat Clinton he was one of the only people who predicted it.
The result ultimately comes down to a tiny number of ‘swing states’. In my view, if Harris wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then she’ll win the presidency.
But that won’t end the problems in America’s badly designed and politically influenced electoral system. It also won’t stop the misinformation and outright lies peddled by Fox News and the influence of Chinese, Russian and Iranian interference in social media. The country is so divided and politics is at such a dangerous level of ferment that the future continues to be uncertain. On the Republican side, the claims and rhetoric has reached farcical levels of nastiness and lies. I don’t care if you are normally conservative the kind of things being spouted by the likes of Trump, JD Vance and others should give all of us concern.
Well in a few days America will vote. Despite the polls and uncertainty, this is my prediction:
Kamala Harris will win the Electoral College 276 to 262.
I came to that result using CNN’s Path to Victory calculator. Boy I hope I’m right.
Map showing my prediction:
